24 more hours and it will be the Milan-SanremoAnd like every year, here we are, making plans, conjectures, hypotheses. Among these, one that comes to mind, in a preponderant way, is signed by Valerio Piva, sports director of Jayco-AlUlaSome time ago, the Mantuan told us: "To win the Sanremo, Tadej Pogacar needs a teammate who can win it too."Well, the opportunity is more tempting than ever this year and that companion has the name of Isaac Del Toro.
Here is our scenario, following this reasoning by Piva: Pogacar makes an initial attack on the Cipressa, causing the group to jump. They answer him Mathieu van der Poel, maybe Filippo Ganna and someone else, together with Del Toro. The Mexican raises the stakes and at that point it's Van der Poel who has to close. And if he uses up energy, if he gets some air, maybe he has no strength to resist Pogacar on the Poggio, since the Slovenian would have been passive in his wheel. Easy, right? But you know: between words and deeds there's... the DNA of Sanremo!
Can this scenario exist, Valerio?
Del Toro he is one of the possible winners of Sanremo, therefore Having a rider like that on the team allows us to play the final differently. You can run back and force the others to move, since they're also keeping an eye on him. The situation is certainly different than when you're the only favorite and the only rider who can really attack hardBut it's also true that this way you risk the other one winning.
It is indeed a risk, but the UAE Emirates would take home the race…
Everyone knows that Pogacar wants to win the Sanremo, but that would be a strategy. In his time with BMC, for example, We won an Amstel Gold Race by betting on Samuel Sanchez. I had him attack on the Cauberg and then he set off on the counterattack. Philip Gilbert. Everyone reacted to Sanchez, and then Gilbert counterattacked. Having a rider who, on paper, can win the race inevitably makes the other favorites move: it's a possible scenario.
Here, let's talk about scenarios, Valerio. Do you think Pogacar should take the first shot anyway?
It could be so, but also the opposite. It can be moved sooner Del Toro on the Cipressa, waiting for the Poggio with Pogacar. Perhaps they're thinking of making the race much more frayed and tense on the Poggio. That way, Pogacar can deliver the decisive blow, but the problem remains the same for him.
What?
That the Poggio is too short (and easy) for him. He has to drop them all, and there's always someone who stays behind him: Van der Poel, Wout Van Aert, or some up-and-coming youngster. The speeds are insane, and it's not easy to drop them. The goal is to make the opponents arrive as tired as possible on the Poggio. And in this Del Toro It can do a lot: it can make the race tough well before the final climb, by selecting the group.
Of course, a Van der Poel has to answer because he knows that Del Toro can go all the way…
Of course, if someone wants to win the race, he doesn't let go. Del Toro And this is Pogacar's advantage. In any case, it's not easy to make predictions: The Sanremo is a race that can be resolved in many ways.
Let's try to do a little bit of free fantasy cycling. If you were driving the flagship with Del Toro and Pogacar, how would you play them?
I would do the hard race from Cipressa, because on the Poggio you risk not leaving them all behind. I would throw Del Toro first, trying to get the race moving… at least with a view to team successIf instead I have to think about making Pogacar win, then I would aim to get to the Poggio and there I would start very strong Del Toro and then I'd send Pogacar. The problem is that the only truly selective point is those 300-400 meters near the summit. And everyone knows that by now.
Or, on the contrary, sleep her all the way to the Aurelia, without doing anything on the Cipressa? Is the risk of dragging the sprinters along too high?
More than anything, at that point there's no more room to make a difference. As mentioned, there are only those 300-400 meters. Thinking of a team victory with two athletes of that caliber, I would run hard even before the Cipressa.
So you're ruling out our hypothesis that Pogacar should take the first shot?
Pogacar has the opportunity to make two strong attacks, that's true. But let's say that after this move he finds himself alone in the lead and behind him there are two or three men collaborating, or worse, a team pulling for their leader: how will he get to the Poggio? Even 20"-30" might not be enough. If they even get close, someone might have saved themselves on the Aurelia and have more energy in the final. And we know that la Classicissima it is based on these subtle balances. At Sanremo, things aren't like other races for Pogacar, where he decides when to start and can win by huge margins.
A nice intrigue, then?
It's Sanremo. Actually, the beauty of Sanremo: even if you're the favorite, you're never guaranteed to win. But this year, having a really strong partner who can really win, maybe something will change. I won a Sanremo with Mark Cavendish at his first participation and with the climb of Le Manie. And two years later I won it with Matthew Goss, the only rider left in front of me, because they had gone all out to eliminate the sprinters.
And this year? Especially since you won't have Michael Matthews sidelined: who will your Jayco-AlUla bet on?
Let's say that Andrea Vendrame he can be his replacementHe has shown good things so far, he is in excellent condition and we are counting on him. The same goes for Mauro SchmidThey will be our two strikers tomorrow.
