The transfer market will officially open on August 1st. Or rather, the various changes of team could become effective. But a lot is already happening. With the help of one of the most important agents, Alex Carera, we try to understand which direction this market is moving. How much do athlete points matter and how teams identify which rider to buy.
One of the latest announcements was that of Matteo Fabbro at Solution Tech-Vini Fantini, but it must be said that Fabbro was a free agent. The changes announced so far are all those involving young riders, who are moving to their respective teams or from there to their respective WorldTour teams.
Alex, we're starting to talk about the summer transfer market. When do negotiations begin? Is it a bit like the football transfer market, which is more or less always talked about, or are negotiations gaining momentum this time of year?
The cycling market has changed a lot in the last 4-5 years, let's say in the post-Covid era. Previously, negotiations began during the Classics in Belgium for the Classics riders, while for the climbers the discussions focused on the Giro d'Italia and especially the rest days of the Tour de France. That's no longer the case. Teams work well in advance, planning ahead to recruit the best riders, and so discussions begin in January.
So there's no specific time period when we talk about the market?
No, it doesn't exist anymore. Of course, there are the rules UCI which establish that announcements can only be made after August 1st, but negotiations are conducted well in advance. Another aspect that has changed significantly in the transfer market is that teams, with strong and promising young players, don't wait for their contracts to expire. They even start planning for the extension the year before. Take, for example, Giulio Pellizzari who has a contract with the Red Bull-Bora until 2027: after the Giro d'Italia, discussions have already begun about his future.
Clear…
It's normal, because no one can afford to reach the expiration date, or even enter the expiration year. If a strong rider's contract expires on December 31, 2026, you can't wait: you'll have lost him by October 2025, and another team will surely have already reached an agreement. This is why contracts are extended earlier.
Do you extend contracts to then have release clauses, so you can buy the rider instead of taking him on a free transfer?
Exactly. It's happening more and more these days. The teams insert release clauses, also in light of what happened with Cian Uijtdebroeks e Maxime Van Gils: Belgian law allows you to withdraw even without a clause, prevailing over UCI rules. So teams protect themselves, and we agents do the same, by adding clauses that protect young athletes. It's not just about end-of-year bonuses, but also about contract renegotiations based on results achieved.
If a rider moves from team “X” to team “Y” on August 1st, does he also take his points with him?
No, Points remain with the original team. Points accumulated up to July 31st remain with the old team. After the transfer, the points obtained are for the new team. The example is that of Alberto Bettiol in 2024: he left the points to EF Education EasyPost.
How important is a rider's ability to score points today, excluding the "mega big names" in the UCI ranking?
Exactly, for them it's a different story. For the big names, victories and important podiums count. They are part of teams that are already established in the WorldTour, so points aren't decisive. But for the other riders, good without being winners, the points are fundamental. Teams like Cofidis, PicNic-PostNL, Intermarché-Wanty, Arkea-B&B Hotels e Jayco-AlUla They also evaluate a rider based on the points he can bring, given the fight to stay in the WorldTour.
Crossing the performance and points lines: is there a type of athlete who is worth more? In short, someone who has a higher market value than he is technically "worth"?
Yes, he's a one-day racer. Those races are worth a lot of points, and even if he didn't win much at the end of the year, he still managed to rack up a good amount of points. This rider could fluctuate between 30th and 60th in the UCI rankings.
Wanting to name a name, just for example?
Naming names is always delicate, but I would say Harold Martin Lopez of XDS-AstanaHe finished four stage races in a row in the top three, a little-known figure, but he scored a lot of points. Or the Uruguayan. Guillermo Thomas Silva, he too is little known but very productive in terms of scoring.
Alex, will we see many young people transferring on August 1st?
No – Carera replies decisively – pbecause the young players normally come from the Devo teams, and there the announcements are made before August. Just look at the ranking of the Giro d'Italia Next Gen before the penultimate stage: all the top ten already have a WorldTour contract or will have one soon.
And what kind of moves do you expect, always talking about types of athletes and not names?
I expect major purchases from the Ineos Grenadiers, but in the winter market, not since August. From August 1st, teams at risk of losing their WorldTour licenses will take action. Considering that Romain Bardet PicNic has left, and they'll have room to spare. The same goes for Intermarché and Cofidis: they're the three teams that could act to salvage what can be salvaged.
They are trying to go on the market to save what can be saved, but not to take the points already obtained by a rider as mentioned, but rather hoping that he will bring new ones...
Exact. They want to sign a rider who can "guarantee" them 300-400 points from August 1st to October 31st. Points that, at the end of the year, could make the difference between having or losing a WorldTour license.
You said you expect Ineos to make some big moves this winter. Why?
Ineos needs to strengthen. They're a great team, but they have some shortcomings. I expect him to finally invest in a youth sector, because it is one of the very few teams without a real Devo.
From the rumors going around, it seems like something is moving…
But rumors aren't enough. It's late June, and you're already behind in selecting the best second-year juniors for a 2026 draft. They can do it, but they have to hurry.
Will the Italians do anything starting August 1st? Or will we just see interns?
No, just trainees. The three Italian Professionals are in full battle for thirtieth place (which qualifies them for a WildCard for the Grand Tours, ed.). La Polti-Kometa ha Davide Piganzoli who can score important points. I think a lot depends on him for this team to remain in the top thirty. VF Group-Bardiani has a more homogeneous team and is slightly ahead. Solution Tech-Vini Fantini They've adopted an effective strategy: less visibility, but an Asian calendar that's bringing in plenty of points. I think it'll be a battle between them right down to the final race in China.
