With Belli the prophet, the balance of the Vuelta

10.09.2024
6 min
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«Well  O'Connor will finish in the top five. You'll see." Wladimir Belli he got the prediction right about the rider of the Decathlon-AG2R. The former Lombard rider, now commentator for Eurosport, followed the Return very closely and between his keen eye and the fact that he is always on the ball, he is the right person to draw up a balance of the great Spanish Tour.

Belli had also always got it right Roglic's victory, this one more predictable, certainly. The only doubt about the Slovenian was: will he make it to Madrid? Or will he be stopped, as often happens, by a fall?

Wladimir Belli (born 1970) was a pro for 16 seasons, now he is a commentator for Eurosport
Wladimir Belli (born 1970) was a pro for 16 seasons, now he is a commentator for Eurosport
Vuelta finita Wladimir, let's start with your vision of O'Connor...

O'Connor is a good rider, maybe not a winner, nor a super champion, he goes well on climbs, defends himself well in time trials and has a great level of consistency. He knows how to handle himself now: he knows himself. He knows his limits and knows how to exploit his strengths well. He hasn't won anything special, but if we look at his list of achievements, he's one of those who never gives up. Fourth in the Tour of Italy, fourth in the Tour de France.

He gained a few minutes in the sixth stage, the one he won, but did you really expect such a result?

Yes, I did. In the end, after that day, how much did he lose compared to others? Let me give you an example. Let's take Pozzovivo from a few years ago. If you left him 10 minutes, I don't know if Roglic would have brought him back. If anything, only him. But not the others. Pozzo would have dropped off every day, but he would never have given up. He would have pushed himself to the limit and never had a single day of huge slump. And then he would have made it to the podium. 

And then there's Primoz Roglic: fourth Vuelta. What do you think?

It's the others who missed a good opportunity, one that he, once again, took advantage of well. At one point, I think he even got a little scared by O'Connor's advantage, and all in all, that gap kept the Vuelta alive. I had assumed Roglic would regain the red jersey at Lagos de Covadonga: he missed out by 5 seconds, but let's also remember his 20-second penalty.

O'Connor was stoic: in the mountains, he gave up little ground to the others (except Roglic) and put in a great final time trial. Result: 2nd in Madrid
O'Connor was stoic: in the mountains, he gave up little ground to the others (except Roglic) and put in a great final time trial. Result: 2nd in Madrid
The feeling, despite the names that were good, is that this was a Vuelta that was a bit of a downturn in terms of form. What's your take on it?

In my opinion, Roglic wasn't as strong as his standards. It wasn't the usual Roglic, you see. As I said before, the others missed a good opportunity. Carapaz fought, he said he wanted to win the Vuelta, but in the end he got his way. O'Connor did a lot with that breakaway and spiced up the entire race. The Vuelta is often a test of reparation, except for the Spanish who feel and experience it differently. 

In this regard Enric Mas Nicolau it went strong….

Yes, very much so. But it's also important to remember that the level was what it was. I have the impression that Mas is not on par with those 3-4 riders who rarely make mistakes. Maybe one day he could try to win the Vuelta by taking advantage of that opportunity I mentioned, but it's also true that time passes and there are people behind him pushing.

Who did you like in general?

Well, this Pablo Castrillo He did some great things. He was an unexpected rider. A great fighter. I also really liked him. Caden GrovesIt's true that the real sprinters weren't there, but in addition to performing well in sprints, he held his own on rough and difficult routes despite his size. In the end, he took home three stages and the green jersey. And good too. Richard CarapazI liked his usual tenacity. In the end, he wasn't far from the podium.

Wladimir Belli has included Kaden Groves among the candidates for this Vuelta
Wladimir Belli has included Kaden Groves among the candidates for this Vuelta
And what can you tell us about Italians?

We haven't seen each other very much, to be honest. But I liked Aleotti, Baroncini, and Cattaneo. Barons he has some qualities… when he doesn't fall and break his bones, then he's unlucky. Even when Velasco won the Italian title, let's remember that he punctured in the final stages, and he was clearly the fastest. He beat Girmay at the Under-23 World Championships, and that means a lot; he's a strong time trialist. In short, he's a good rider. Aleotti I liked him for what he did. He did an excellent job, he was always present, and I think he found his place in the group. He doesn't yet have the strength needed for time trials, climbs, and recovery to qualify for the general classification, but he has his space and is a very useful rider for the cause.

We haven't talked about it yet Van AertAs long as he was in the running, he seemed to be on the rise…

Yes, but due to its characteristics it doesn't win much. He was fighting for the sprints, the stages, the green jersey, and what did all this lead to? It prevented him from finishing the season. Think about Van der Poel: how many times have we seen him really active at Tour? Not many. And maybe when he saw it, he tried to win. It's true that Wout is more versatile, goes strong on more terrain, and puts himself more on the line, but not like this.

Are you saying that he has to select, after all?

Yes, and then there's another thing I think about him: someone like Van Aert should never be a domestique. He goes out of his way to help this one or that one. They take him to the Tour for vingegaardThey let him break away, they stop him to wait for him, to let him pull, and then they expect him to win himself. Okay, bad luck, but this year he's won five races: not enough for someone as strong as him. I'll give you an example...

For Van Aert, a two-faced Vuelta: good at the start, but then a withdrawal that cost him dearly
For Van Aert, a two-faced Vuelta: good at the start, but then a withdrawal that cost him dearly
Go…

I think back, and I get angry, to the first stage of this year's Tour, the one that Bardet won. An ideal stop for Van Aert. It would have been enough for Vingegaard to make one of his 250-meter sprints on one of those final climbs, when the group was once again able to see the breakaway, and Van Aert would have closed Or the sprinters would have been eliminated entirely. What would it have cost Vingegaard? How much would a 250-meter sprint have impacted the Dane's Tour? It's not easy for Wout to be on that team.

Let's go back to the Vuelta: is there anyone who disappointed you?

Vlasov. I know Alex well, I know his talent. I was coaching him when he won the Under 23 Giro. But after so many Grand Tours, how many stages has he won? None. And he's always had one or more off days. And then in general it didn't seem brilliant to me. UAE Emirates. It's true that they lost Almeida (the leader, ed.) to COVID, but then Adam Yates didn't perform as expected; the fatigue of the Tour evidently took its toll. It's not easy to stay competitive for so long. And they'd already had that problem with Ayuso. If he'd been healthy, he would certainly have made it into the top five, because he's a real rider.