Just over 24 hours and we will know the winner of the Milan-Sanremo number 116. One Classicissima of champions, of great teams and, above all, of super couples. Jasper Philipsen and Mathieu Van der Poel for Alpecin-Deceuninck, Tadej Pogacar and Jonathan Narvaez for UAE Emirates, Jonathan Milan and Mads Pedersen for Lidl Trek, Filippo Ganna and Ben Swift for Ineos Grenadiers: almost all possible winners, with intersecting strategies and tactical solutions that can overturn the outcome of the race. It almost makes you think that the Classicissima It turns into a big dance, where the route is the road between Cipressa, Poggio and the final sprint, in which each couple will try to dictate their own rhythm.
We talk about these super couples with Daniele Bennati, former rider and, until a few months ago, coach of the Italian national team. He has known many of these athletes closely, studied them, and knows well what they can do on the road to Sanremo. The "Benna" of Classicissime has 14 of them under his belt, the first of which came in 2003, as you can see in the opening photo, when he rode for the world champion Cipollini. So he can tell us something good!
Van der Poel and Philipsen
Daniele, a peculiar chessboard is emerging, a dance of couples. Let's start with the two Alpecin players: how can they compete? Why could they be favored?
Well, they are definitely among the favorites. They are the last two winners and have complementary characteristics. Van der Poel, if he sprints, could do an exceptional job for Philipsen, as the last man of the bunch, the one everyone would love to have. But at the same time, he could play his cards earlier, attacking on the Poggio and tackling the descent alone, as he's already shown he can do. And I'd add: what if VdP leads the sprint to his other teammate, Kaden Groves?
Perhaps even tactically, the two Alpecin riders are the ones with the simplest interpretation of the race…
True, They won't have to do anything until the Poggio. VdP will have to follow Pogacar, while Philipsen will have to defend himself until the sprint.. The UAE He'll have the responsibility of riding the toughest race possible, assuming the Sanremo peloton can actually be selected. The weather could be decisive this year: if it rains (as it seems likely, ed.), Pogačar would have a better chance.
Why?
Because if it were to rain, a rider like Pogacar could make the difference. A certain weather is like having a strong teammate. If the weather isn't bad, it's really difficult to make the selection, even if your name is Pogacar. When did he win? Vincent Nibali, who didn't win it by chance because he always believed in it, the weather conditions were favorable. I was there that day. There was a strong crosswind on the Poggio, and Vincenzo managed to make the difference. So the weather can always be a determining factor in the outcome of the Milan-Sanremo. Today, the pace is so fast that it's increasingly difficult to make a selection on the Cipressa, while if the descent were to be wet, then there would be a significant spread.
Pogacar and Narvaez
Let's move on to the highly anticipated Tadej Pogacar, who has a winning partner in Narvaez, someone with a decisive impact, as we saw last year in Turin at the Giro…
Narvaez is strong, he doesn't have great results at Sanremo, but he can be a very interesting alternative to Pogacar because It goes fast uphill and has a high top speed. Its speed makes it a valid alternative. UAE However, in my opinion, he'll have only one card left to play: Pogacar. The team will work for him, trying to make the race tough from the Cipressa onwards.
Valerio Piva told us that it would be ideal for Pogacar to have a co-captain with a real chance of victory; perhaps for a move on the Cipressa or even on the Poggio Narvaez, he could be sent ahead…
It's okay, but The more time passes, the more difficult it becomes to make a difference on the climb. La UAE He will have to make the Cipressa as fast as possible to tire out his opponents, then Pogacar will have to find the right attack on the Poggio.
Should Pogacar anticipate this attack or should he always attack in the final part of the Poggio?
The Sanremo is unpredictable. When Van der Poel won, he attacked in the final 200 meters of the Poggio, gained 25 meters on Tadej, and crossed the finish line with about fifteen seconds to spare. It's not just where you attack that matters, but also how you attack, and above all, how consistently you maintain the descent, which is technical and requires constant relaunching. And Van der Poel is technically excellent in this regard. Descending the Poggio requires technique, but also a lot of power. Every relaunch is a sprint.
Pedersen and Milan
The Lidl-Trek pairing seems the most similar in terms of features: two powerful beasts. What can you tell us about them?
I don't see them that similar. Pedersen has a great endurance and is a former world champion; he has what it takes to win a Milan-San Remo. Milan is a great sprinter. They could do something different. Jonathan must try to lose as little as possible on the Poggio to be able to play his cards in the sprint.
And Pedersen?
Pedersen will have to anticipate. He's not afraid to attack from afar and knows how to keep up with those who want to make a tough run. They're an interesting pair, both can win.
Will they just have to defend themselves?
Not necessarily. As mentioned, Pedersen can do much more. We saw him well in Paris-Nice, and he can go fast even over a long distance and in bad weather. Mads is a fighter. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to follow up on big attacks.
While Milan?
Jonathan must do absolutely nothing. He must stay close behind, try to take the climbs as far ahead as possible, and stay calm. Hold on tight.And once on the Aurelia, if he's still up front, he'll have to sprint. I imagine he'll pull away and on the Aurelia he'll have to try to regroup with the group. Because for him to win, there needs to be a small group. At that point, Pedersen, who in theory should be there, could help him greatly.
Ganna and Swift
Daniele, let's move on to the final super couple: Filippo Ganna and Ben Swift. There's only one clear winner here, though: Goofy...
Filippo is doing great, and Swift is a key partner. He has enormous experience, especially at Sanremo, where he competed in ten editions without ever retiring, finishing on the podium twice (third in 2014 and second in 2016, ed.). It will be crucial for Pippo to hold his positions in the final. Ben is very good at being a road captain.
And how will Ganna be able to play his cards?
He can wait until the last minute and attack on the Aurelia, he can try on the Poggio, or he can play the narrow sprint. With Philipsen he would be beaten, but let's remember that At Sanremo the sprint comes after 300 kilometers and this changes everything.
With Van der Poel, Pogacar, Philipsen and maybe some other isolated fast men, like Girmay for example, playing it out in the sprint is quite a risk…
Yes, but Ganna has proven to be fast even after long races. If I were him, with a small group on the Aurelia, I'd try to attack.
But everyone is expecting an attack from Ganna…
Even when Cancellara won, everyone knew he'd attack there. But if you have the right engine, even if they expect it, you're not easy to catch. This is definitely Pippo's best card.
The best thing for Ganna would be to have Swift ready to close…
At the Sanremo Festival, there are always a few partners at the finale. But with these couples, things could change. Anyone who closes on Ganna knows they've lost the race. That's why attacking is one of his best strategies. However, I am convinced that he could also win in the sprint.
