If there is a race in the international cycling calendar that more than others responds to the adjective unpredictable, this is definitely the Milan-Sanremo. That that's exactly the secret of its charm. Long considered the Monument of sprinters, in reality the Classicissima he saw all types of riders raise their arms at the finish line in Via RomaPure sprinters, endurance sprinters, fast rouleurs, time trialists, stage race winners, climbers, downhill racers.
Each of these typologies corresponds to a different racing scenario, with climbers trying to drop the sprinters on the Cipressa and Poggio, sprinters doing everything they can to prevent this from happening, finishers trying to seize the moment, etc. To try to imagine some of the possible scenarios for Sanremo 2025, we spoke with Alessandro Petacchi, that this race he won it exactly twenty years ago, In 2005.
Petacchi, make predictions for the Classicissima It's always very difficult. Where can we start?
From the weather. At the moment it looks like it might rain on Saturday, although it should improve in the afternoonBut if the race were to be wet during the decisive kilometers, it's clear that this could throw everything into disarray. Weather aside, I think it's clear that Pogacar will raise hell to try to win, he will field the Cipressa team to make things difficult for the sprinters.
Let's focus for a moment on the world champion, who many have indicated as the favorite. What should you do? better than last year?
The more men he has on the Poggio, the better it will be for him, because if you are in front and covered you will have much less effort, you don't get the whiplash on the hairpin bends that you can feel at those speeds. In my opinion, if he had two men keeping up a high pace, everything would be easier, when it attacks it will hurt more because everyone will already be at the limit.
So you don't see an attack on Cipressa as a possible scenario?
I see it as difficult, because then It would be alone and there are 10 kilometers of Aurelia to do with the group behind them pushing like hell. He might even try, but then he might not be fresh for the Poggio.
But at the World Cup, the attack that seemed risky worked out for him...
It's not the same thing, the path is very different, the world championship was definitely more challenging and therefore we could make a difference. In Classicissima He'll climb the Cipressa with 70 men, with the captains still with their teammates. Even if he were to gain 20 seconds, I don't think it would be enough. In that case, Van Der Poel and Ganna would have to wait and let the teams work. Of course, if they were to follow him with 4 or 5 men, everything changes. but it would be a truly unprecedented scenario for the Milan-Sanremo.
Besides Pogacar, who do you consider among the favorites?
The only ones who can stay with him on the Poggio could be Van Der Poel and Ganna, for what he has shown in the last few races. I also see Pidcock well, who could take advantage of the final descent to attack, but even in that case I don't think Van Der Poel will be easily dropped. Ganna instead perhaps might have more difficulty going downhill.
Van Der Poel also has a teammate who is the reigning champion
In fact everything It will depend on that, whether Philipsen will be close to the best at the end of the Poggio. In that case, like last year, Van Der Poel will probably work for him. Another one that I see well is Matthews who has always done well here and has reached the podium several times.
The Lidl-Trek duo also seems to be quite aggressive
Both Pedersen and Milan have shown excellent performances in recent weeks, and they're certainly doing well. Milan won the Tirreno-Adriatico with flying colors, even if the sprint in San Benedetto del Tronto was nothing like the one on Via Roma. I think they will both start as leadersI don't think they'll be able to follow the attacks; they'll have to be more of a waiting race. If you're 7-8 seconds behind at the top, you need someone to help you, and in that case, they'll have to help each other. Even if they start on equal terms, I think they should decide at the meeting how to proceed. Pedersen always gives guarantees in this type of match, Milan on the other hand is at the beginning, he still has to understand, and if he arrives with the best in Via Roma we will also understand if he can compete.
Let's move on to Ganna. After the good performances of the last two editions, could this be a good year?
He certainly showed that he was in a period of grace. If he arrives With a small group without a very fast rider he can compete, even against Van Der Poel, because after almost 300 kilometers, every sprint is something in itself. For example, in 2004, I arrived at Sanremo without losing a single sprint, but I didn't win that one because in the end I didn't have any more legs. The following year, however, having started more slowly, I won. Because I was fresher, I had suffered less on the Cipressa and on the PoggioReturning to Ganna, he can obviously also play the sprint in the last 2 kilometers.
Another scenario that would make the ending very emotional
Because at that point the tactical games would open, since Whoever closes on a Ganna attack already knows he's lost, unless you do it right away. To go and get him, you have to go out of your way and pay for it, even if your name is Van Der Poel. This is if at that point only the captains are left, but if there's more than one team member, it changes, also because they're expecting an attack from Ganna. Ganna he will have to be good at seeing the position and face of his opponents at the bottom of the Poggio and seize the moment, in the end in those moments it's a question of instinct. It will depend a lot on how he is Van Der Poel, I think he will be the one to be decisive, last year without his work Pidcock probably would have won.
See any other potential favorites?
On paper there is Stuyven who has already won there, but that time he had no teammates. Mohoric won by attacking on the descent and could try again, as he actually did last year too. Then I don't see any other riders who can make a difference or climb the Poggio together with the best, with the pace that the UAE. Jorgenson is going strong but this is not the path for him, I've seen Kooij struggling uphill lately.
So you don't think other teams can take over the race on Cipressa and Poggio?
I think it will just be the UAE to do them at full speed. Also because It would be madness to try to drop Pogacar on the climb, it is better for others to wait and try to respond. Not surprisingly Van der Poel is the only one who managed to attack him two years ago, but it meant it was going twice as fast as the others.
Well, we're at the end. After all these possible scenarios, who will win the 2025 Milan-San Remo?
Tadej he deserves it for what he has been trying to do for yearsBut Van Der Poel is also in great form. Ganna is a bit of an unknown quantity, but he'll certainly be among the protagonists.
But the question was about a dry name…
So I say Pogacar.
