"Let's say that if Roubaix were on Zwift," Angelo Furlan smiles, "Pogacar would win it. Luckily." Real cycling is made of the charm of the craft, of technique, of knowledge, of the things left unsaid within the groupThere are lightning-fast events, on the cobblestone sections and also on the asphalt, there are many unknowns. So he can wake up in the morning and decide he'll attack, but he'll need to be focused from kilometer zero and for the next 259. Maybe just His impetus could be a problem, in a race where you have to think much more than you thinkPogacar makes the crowds dream because he often doesn't calculate, just like Van Der Poel. However, his impetuosity, given his incredible strength, could be a problem, especially in the first part of the race.
Furlan is 47 years old and carries within him an ancient experience, listened to by the old directors when he was a boy, matured during his career as a professional and then elaborated and chewed over in these years as a trainer, biomechanical, cycling theorist and philosopher. Su Pogacar at Roubaix he made a social video asking his followers' opinions, but in our opinion the topic deserved a more in-depth analysis consisting of ten questions. So, let's get started.
Pogacar has a great engine, he doesn't weigh 50 kilos like Piepoli, so he shouldn't bounce on the cobblestones. But there are some pitfalls...
There are definitely some pitfalls. I've been thinking about this for a few days. Up until 2-3 years ago it would have been risky to think that a rider like him, from stage races, would go to Roubaix to win it, especially for the first time. In cycling before Van der Poel, before him and all the talents around, this would have been something out of the ordinary. But isn't it true that all cycling in the last 3-4 years has been out of the ordinary?
Why?
Certain attacks, the way they run… They do the opposite of what sports directors advised up until 5-6 years ago, that is, stay covered, wait, not waste energy. These are so strong, that they do the opposite. So if you think about it for a moment, it wouldn't be so out of place for Tadej to be one of the favorites at Roubaix. Then, if we think in technical terms, there's something else to say, something to consider.
What?
It has always been thought that To win the Roubaix you have to have some sort of skill in riding the bike, which he certainly has. Yet over the past twenty years, there have been riders with stellar condition who have finished ahead of the Roubaix, even on the podium, despite not being the best at riding. I won't name names because they're friends of mine, and then they get angry. If you put a rider with stellar condition and great form on one side of the scale and a rider with great technique on the other, the one with the best condition and great form wins. Tadej has good condition and legs, plus he's also good at driving....
It's also true that the cobblestones were more uncomfortable for bikes in the past than they are now.
This is absolutely true. We had the aluminum frame dedicated to the Roubaix, and woe betide you if you made it with carbon because you'd destroy it. Now the carbon is rigid where needed and absorbs bumps longitudinally, so it snaps when you stand on the pedals and absorbs shocks on the cobblestones. They ride without gloves, with high-profile wheels, the levers turned inward, the saddle all the way forward, a track racing setup, and giant tubeless tires. They almost use fast gravel bikes, the bikes these days are crazy.The evolution of the last 3-4 years is comparable to that of the last twenty years.
And does that make that much of a difference?
The material has made great strides, but the threshold wattages are not that different. Take away a Van Aert who has 460 FTP, at least from what they let you know, Pogacar with the zone 2 that he declared (5 watt/kg, ed.) is capable of going on 450 watt barrel, for example in the Arenberg or even in the Carrefour dell'Arbre, after having done the first hour 300 watts on averageThe unknown factor for him, in my opinion, is not so much his performance, but rather the first part of the race.
The one before the cobblestones?
He will have some experienced riders alongside him who will probably have to help him, however the first sector of cobblestones It arrives in Troisville after about ninety kilometers. It's in the unframed section that things usually get messed up.Many times, you start watching the Roubaix when the race is almost decided. It's not uncommon for stupid crashes to occur in the first part, because beginners get a bit sleepy and pay the price for going slowly and then going very fast right after.
Is this a problem for Pogacar?
His way of running, with the recklessness due to the fact that for him the laws of gravity do not exist and perhaps not even the CX given the amount of air he takes in, could be a sword of Damocles. Last year, thanks to the tailwind, Alpecin destroyed the race well before the ArenbergAnd if someone sets it up like that again, given how much wind it would get, Tadej might have some problems.
Do you see him as the usual Pogacar on the attack?
Exactly, although it doesn't always work in Roubaix. I mean, you can't do it with those Belgian guys, even if they're racing in France, who are there. While in the Grand Tours he faced the cobbles racing with his peers in terms of watts per kilo, in Roubaix the absolute watt counts more..
Twenty years ago, no one would have imagined a rider of this stature going to Roubaix—think of Nibali and, before him, Bartoli. Why?
Cycling was more compartmentalized, there was a conservative attitude because the fear of getting hurt was greatAt my first Roubaix, they told me to be careful because if I got hurt, I'd miss the Giro. For many, those races were the highlight of the season. They started a month before and after the Roubaix they drew a lineThat type of rider is no longer around, but he used to be a conditioning factor, in the sense that the lighter riders were afraid to mix with these beasts who were willing to give it their all. Racing against them was like living in the trenches. and they would have had no problem sticking a brake lever in your side.
What if it rains instead?
If it rains, we'll erase all these reflections. One by one, let's get the ball rolling. If it rains and comes out a Roubaix like Colbrelli's, then maybe everything will level outWhat might bother Tadej is his lack of familiarity with the cobblestones, the art of staying on top of the humpback. Many first-time riders tackle Roubaix by choosing the side of the road, which is more dangerous when it rains. If it rains, all it takes is one sneeze and you're already on the ground, and you also have to move quickly., otherwise the others will climb over you. And if by chance you start to be afraid of hurting yourself, you tense up and that's when you really fall. Tadej won't do the Giro d'Italia, but He clearly doesn't want to get hurt and the team will want to keep him safe. In my opinion, he'll decide: if he wakes up and wants to do the Roubaix, they won't keep him still.
He has already made it clear…
And who knows, maybe they're trying to dissuade him now. I think he just wants to do it because he wants to have fun.And the media debate that has been created around it is only good for our sport.
